169 replies to this topic

[Phil]

Ah the good old days, NOT!   Toyota is synonomous with hybrids.  I think they've done the best job.  Quality for all cars has improved dramatically.  The problem with complexity is cost.  Compleity = cost for all intents and purposes.

[E3 wise]

Since you’re talking about Toyota hybrids- I would like to interject that Toyota Motor Corp and BMW have signed a long term memorandum of understanding (MoU) aimed at a long-term strategic collaboration in four fields: joint development of a fuel cell system, joint development of architecture and components for a future sports vehicle, collaboration on power train electrification and joint research and development on lightweight technologies. In other words BMW is going to use the fuel cell Technology developed by Toyota for its FCV fleet of electric cars.

Just to put in a plug I got to drive for the fourth time a few weeks ago the Toyota Advanced fuel cell Vehicle again, with the new stack in place, the mileage is now 78 MPH gasoline equivalent, Toyota is saying that this new stack will reduce costs by 15 – 20% because of size and lower platinum needed and will have a range of 415 miles with the standard 3 minute fill up.

   “Toyoda said: "Toyota is strong in environment-friendly hybrids and fuel cells … I believe BMW's strength is developing sports cars. I get so excited thinking about the cars that will result from this relationship."

   Find story at http://fuelcelltoday.../news-archive��

   So here is the plan exsplained to me by a toyota represenative- development of three distinct power trains based on electric cars.

   1.  Hybrid – on market now with plug in Hybrid electric available in 15 states
   2.  Plug in Battery Electric- true EV or PEV however you want to call it.  Rollout late 2013
   3.  Fuel cell Electric –FCV rollout for model year 2015.

   This will give people the ability to choose prices and mileage ranges that fit their particular needs.  Look for the Japanese and European markets to have the widest choices available with the US market increasing over time.  Also for those who have solar or wind at home you will be able to fuel from alternative sources- cool.

[dconklin]

still learning, on 30 June 2012 - 04:37 PM, said:

I'm impressed that Toyota (and now others) have gotten the hybrids to work well.
I've always been kind of aware of the added complication and added weight and added expense and I expected reliability problems, if nothing else.  I've seen only a couple of Prius inoperable, waiting for a tow.  I'm impressed.  Actually though, all modern cars are more reliable than cars were long ago.  Anybody else remember vapor lock or flooding?.

I am not too sure about Toyota hybrids, the Highlander is the hybrid that would have cost my ex over $7000 to fix for a little part.  This gave no warning of any problems and stopped the car after a single knock.  That and Toyota has had a lot of recalls over the last couple years.  I would like to see Mercedes or Volvo come out with a good vehicle.  They may be more expensive, but they make very reliable cars.  My Volvo had more then 400,000 miles when I junked it, and I only junked it because the rust got so bad (I wasn't the first owner) that it wouldn't pass inspection.

[Phil]

BEV's and FCV's are both much simpler that hybrids so I expect hybrids will just be a bridge to both pure vehicles.  From what E3 wise said, it looks like FCV's will be hard to beat assuming pricing isn't too non competitive.  So the two big challenges are battery cost and fuel cell cost.

This is definitely shaping up to be an interesting decade!

[dconklin]

Phil, on 02 July 2012 - 12:06 PM, said:

BEV's and FCV's are both much simpler that hybrids so I expect hybrids will just be a bridge to both pure vehicles.  From what E3 wise said, it looks like FCV's will be hard to beat assuming pricing isn't too non competitive.  So the two big challenges are battery cost and fuel cell cost.

This is definitely shaping up to be an interesting decade!

I am sure that within a decade they will have it smoother and able to get more people into these cars.  I just believe there is still work that needs to be done and worked out first.

[Phil]

Agreed.  I think BEV's are probably 5-10 years from viability, i.e. price/performance competitive without subsidies.  My guess is FCV's are probably five years later but further breakthroughs in cell technology could change that.

[steph84]

I really can't see how this can be enforced and am sure most consumers would freak out by this and feel like they are being forced to do it. I think the best way to get people to change is by educating them!

[eds]

Here is a website that tells you the price of gas, all around the world.
http://www.low-cost-...gas-prices.html

Now you are educated.  Did it change anything?

PAIN!  Is what causes change.  
PAIN of a Recession, PAIN of a job lost, PAIN at the pump, PAIN of Debts, Pain of Bankruptcy, all cause Change.

[E3 wise]

I think it important to remember that here in the United States the free market is the biggest factor in determining which products succeed.   Anybody remember this example – back in the early 1980’s two video recording technologies became available to average consumers, they where two choices VHS and Beta max.  Beta Max was used by the television industry it had better resolution and editing ability.  VHS was more user friendly and made the strategic move of partnering with several major movie studios for new releases to be in VHS, this and the easier use for average consumers led to VHS being the widely adopted technology.

   Now let’s use a car example.  From the late 1940’s, through the early 70’s eight cylinder cars where the major consumer choice.  Power was king, gas was cheap and plentiful and the love affair with American cars was in full swing.  Bigger was better, faster and gave more power.

Then the oil crisis of the 1970’s came to the United States, suddenly gas was in short supply and people started looking for better mileage, Japanese cars which had been just a blip on the market began coming on the market, Datsun, Toyota, Mazda and Honda came into the market and starting off with few options but they got great mileage. As their market share grew they added more options, better quality and more safety features, so that in 10 years they were 25% of the market share and by the 1990s made up fully a half of all cars sold in the United States and they all had four or six cylinders.  Consumers decided the winners and losers.

   I started this thread because in my work I have the unique privilege to be aware of the latest technology that is coming on line and because Tesla’s Model S is coming out with more options and mileage, the cost is high but it’s a luxury car so that’s to be expected.
    Thing is in this country we use 60% or more of all oil used daily to move our cars.  Electric cars are more efficient, have better pick up and are less complicated then internal combustion, so going electric is a major way to work toward energy independence, lessen global warming and be fuels from alternative energy.

   I know for a fact, because I have seen and driven them that 200 mile and better cars with 45 minute recharges will be coming on the market in two years.  They are comfortable, more affordable and run great.

   Yet consumers will decide which make it and which will become a footnote in history.

  Last example Tucker Cars, in the 1948 their cutting edge car featured  Magnesium wheels, disc brakes, fuel injection, self-sealing tubeless tires, and a direct-drive torque converter transmission, components and features of the car were innovative and ahead of their time. The most recognizable feature of the Tucker '48, a directional third headlight (known as the "Cyclops Eye"), would activate at steering angles of greater than 10 degrees to light the car's path around corners.   Most of these features would later become integrated into modern designs, some fifty years after being demonstrated by Tucker.

Consumers however where not ready and so, well capitalism decided who stayed in business and who did not.
   In the next 2-5 years 3 different types of hybrid and electric cars will come into the market, consumers will decide.  For myself I want a fuel Cell Car. I Know a lot of you think I am crazy but I have been working with these cars and the technology for almost 15 years and have driven 10 different car makers FCV’s on multiple occasions, meaning I have already picked the one I think will be the most adopted in the mass market.

   Its electric, gets 75 mpg gasoline equivalent, takes 3 ½ minutes to refuel and can be fueled from home using solar or wind energy, may sound like science fiction but its real, oh and it has a mileage of 425 miles per fill up, first year models will sell for 35,000 or so which is more than average cars but hey first generations are always more expensive, after two years the average price will start around $ 26,000.   Oh and its a Toyota

[Phil]

As I've said, the free market always wins.  People will decide what will and will not fly.

Any idea what the home hydrogen generator would cost?  35K is competitive with BEV's now, 26K would seem more than reasonable.

I trust you'll continue to keep us posted.

[Pat]

The electric cars help to reduce the use of gas, what does it do to the use of electricity.  Are we trading one problem for another problem.  How does the cost of electricity compare to the cost of gas?

[E3 wise]

It all depends on where the electricity is coming from.  I have posted a couple of times the article about Austin Texas and their program to use alternative sources for electric cars.  Go that route and electric costs are very low, on average the charging for an electric car averages $3.45 to $6.00 per 200 miles, gas is lets say $3.35 for 35 miles depending on car and driving habits, so electrics are  cheaper.  Depends on where you live but even at 220 volts for 8 hours of charging, the cost is around $1.50 to $2.00.

   Hope that helps, oh and also when the 45 minute charging comes on the market, the so called turbo charge will be even more affordable due to very short recharging times.  This is one reason why the military is so positive about electrics.

[Phil]

Why would short charging times be cheaper?  If you need to dump 20KW into a battery that is independent of how much time it takes.  Just curious.

[still learning]

Phil, on 05 July 2012 - 11:58 AM, said:

Why would short charging times be cheaper?  If you need to dump 20KW into a battery that is independent of how much time it takes.  Just curious.

You meant kWh?
Nissan Leaf battery capacity rated at 24 kWh per http://en.wikipedia....llon_equivalent

Worthwhile looking at that Wikipedia article to maybe get a better idea regarding charging times (long if you've gotta use a 110V service, OK with 220V) and cost to charge and payback time (depends so much on gasoline cost).

Walked behind a parked Leaf today and saw no exhaust pipe.

[Phil]

Yes KWH, sorry.  What I meant was if you charge 2KW for 10 hours it's the same as 20KW for 1 hour.  Both are still 20KWH and since it's priced at KWH there would be no cost difference between the two.  For me that wuold be $1.30!

[fancyfingers]

steph84, on 04 July 2012 - 12:31 AM, said:

I really can't see how this can be enforced and am sure most consumers would freak out by this and feel like they are being forced to do it. I think the best way to get people to change is by educating them!

I know a way that would not freak me out and make me feel like I was not being forced into doing this. I would trade my car right now, straight across the board, so I would not have a car payment, for a state of the art, electric car or a hybrid. With all the money our gvt has been throwing at big corporations, why not? I would gladly bring in the title, sign a form. One per person. Person must be of driving age in the state they reside in. I cannot afford car payment, and many others can't either. This would be a quick way to get many vehicles that are big polluters off the roads and cleaner ones on the road.

[Phil]

The feds are already borrowing 40% of what they spend and they will still give you $7500 to buy one.  That's probably about as good as it's going to get.

Corporations operate on a balance sheet, their prices have to cover costs plus profit.  When you increases their costs, they have to increase their prices to compensate.  That means you pay.  That's why people say corporations don't pay taxes, people do.  Since the rich and the poor pay the same price for goods, corporate taxes are totally regressive.

[fancyfingers]

Phil, on 28 July 2012 - 08:54 AM, said:

The feds are already borrowing 40% of what they spend and they will still give you $7500 to buy one.  That's probably about as good as it's going to get.

Corporations operate on a balance sheet, their prices have to cover costs plus profit.  When you increases their costs, they have to increase their prices to compensate.  That means you pay.  That's why people say corporations don't pay taxes, people do.  Since the rich and the poor pay the same price for goods, corporate taxes are totally regressive.

$7500 is not enough to get me to trade in my car to help the environment. I do not have a car payment. I do not want a car payment. I cannot afford a car payment. Most people I know are in the same position I am in. They would love a car that would do least damage to the environment, but their pocketbook currently doesn't allow it.

[Phil]

Yes, that's always the problem.  Hopefully when people do need a new car they will consider electrics.  I have a 2002 and a 2005, so I'm not due for a replacement myself until at least 2015 or so.  I'm hoping by then they will be price competitive with ICE cars.

Millions of new cars ARE sold every year, just think what how green it would be if they were all BEV's!

[E3 wise]

The fact is that one of these days in a few years you will need a car, by then because of increased manufacturing and the fact that they will be 3rd 4th or 5th generation the costs will be less and hopefully things like milege will be more.  So you may be ready then.  Our 2005 will be 10 years old in 2015, if we can we will buy in 2016 or 2017, it will be a fuel cell electric and hopefully we will be able to fuel it from home.  I am not for paying a premium but as early adopters often that is what happens, for those non early adopters time and decrease in cost will make electric cars more desirable.

Also if gas were to be say $5.00 a gallon or more you might consider it more.  Now one benefit of living in the good old USA is that gas prices are much lower than in Europe or Asia meaning that they will probably be the ones buying these cars and driving down our prices because of increased manufacture numbers.

But like Phil has pointed out, and it is 100% true, people have to be able to afford making a change or it just will not happen, so here is to being able to afford one in a few years.